One Nation – Winners Or Losers?
The Party has Taken Off, But Will it Last?
Since Hanson’s party surged to second place in the polls, it has grown in size and sophistication. It’s popularity has attracted energy and talent. There appears to be better collaboration and organization in its ranks than ever before. But has it learnt from past mistakes?
The party’s policies are being added to on a weekly basis – more detail and more credible with every iteration. For example, the party now supports income splitting to give families tax relief and Pauline also supports voluntary superannuation. These policies appear to have been lifted straight out of People First Party’s policy suite.
Conservative politicians are getting behind the Pauline Hanson phenomenon. Cory Bernardi, who founded the Australian Conservatives party in 2017, is now leader of One Nation in the South Australian parliament, albeit in the upper house (the Council) where the party is two seats shy of holding the balance of power. The party has seven seats in total; four members in the lower house (just one less than the official opposition Liberal Party) and three in the upper house, following the March 21, 2026 election (ABC).
In Western Australia, the party’s team now includes two seats in the Legislative Council.
In Victoria, the party is lining up a team for the November election that looks more like a government-in-waiting than anyone might have expected. It has candidates for every upper house seat. Its state leader, Warren Pickering, will be running in the lower house seat of Packenham. More candidates for seats in the lower house are yet to be announced.
Federal Politics
Federally, the party has four Senators – two from Queensland, one from NSW and one from WA. Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce switched from the Nationals to join One Nation in December, 2025, giving the party its first seat in the House of Representatives. David Farley won the Farrer by-election for One Nation in May (its first ever electoral victory in the House).
There was some talk of Barnaby Joyce running for the Senate in NSW at the next federal election. A Senate seat is an easy win for a party that preforms strongly across the state, but whose support is too dispersed to win a lower house seat. Barnaby is the member for New England and is very popular there. He says his change to One Nation was greeted with great applause. If that is true, it makes sense to wrestle New England from the Nationals for One Nation at the next election.
Can a Senator be Prime Minister?
When One Nation first surged to second place in the polls, Karl Stefanovic asked Pauline if she thought she could become Prime Minister. She equivocated, saying – honest as ever – she was ‘at the end of her life’. She’s 72.
But there’s nothing like popularity and attention to breathe new life into an old chook. Look at Donald Trump – he’s 80 and barely sleeps, they say. Old Joe Biden’s aids said the top job was what kept him going, too.
Word is that Pauline plans to run for the Senate again in 2028 when her term expires. She has pointed out – correctly – that there is nothing in the Constitution preventing a Prime Minister governing from the Senate. The party’s leader in the House of Reps would represent her there, just as the Leader of the Government in the Senate, Penny Wong, currently represents the PM.
However, the PM sits in the House of Reps by convention because that is where the main business of government is conducted and where the PM can answer questions directly. Senators cannot speak to members in the House except when there is a joint sitting.
If Pauline is serious about becoming Prime Minister and presenting One Nation as an alternative government, she should stand for a seat in the House of Representatives at the next election.
Senator Hanson first entered federal politics when she won the seat of Oxley in Ipswich, south east Queensland, in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal-come-independent (Wikipedia). It was a stunning upset in a very safe Labor seat, formerly held by Bill Hayden. Pauline was educated in state schools in Brisbane and left at age 15 when she married and became pregnant. She worked with her siblings in her parents fish and chip shop in Ipswich, later taking care of the accounts. Hanson owns two properties in Queensland and reportedly lives on a large property in Beaudesert. There’s probably a seat somewhere in the area she has a good chance of winning.
When the 2000 U.S. Presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was so close that no one knew which way it would go, Bush’s team decided to act like winners. They started announcing their administration. It was precocious. But it garnered confidence.
If One Nation is serious about becoming the next Australian government, it should aim to win in the House of Representatives.
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